I’m running in the New York Marathon on November 5, which will be my first marathon. I’ve never run more than ~18 miles at one time, though I run half-marathons very often. 10-15 miles is my favorite distance. When the first COVID lockdowns began I ran a half marathon almost every weekend for the duration.
I was able to skip the lottery by joining the company team and raising money for cancer research:
It looks like some people are betting on the matrix of:
My finish time (I’m targeting ~4 hours)
Whether or not I finish
Whether or not I bargle
Some data for those who are trying to make a guess.
I regularly run 13 miles under 2 hours and feel completely fine afterward. I can run 13 miles in ~1:45 easily with effort, and my personal best is ~1:41.
My most recent training run for the Marathon was 17 miles in 2:25. I ran this at my race pace and could easily have kept going. I felt fine the next day.
I’ve never bargled on a long run. But I have bargled immediately after the finish line on several 5k races where I was pushing as hard as possible. My fastest 5ks were ~16:30 many years ago. I would struggle to achieve that today. I can run very fast, and I can run very far, but I can no longer run very fast for more than a mile or two without 41 year old consequences.
The longest I’ve hiked over difficult terrain is 25 miles.
When I run a long distance (10+ miles) my heartrate is pretty locked-in between 160-172bpm. That’s a very comfortable HR for me and it’s below my aerobic threshold. If I’m pushing myself it gets up to ~180 but I can’t maintain that for more than a few miles.
I’m going over to at least 4:25. Not because of anything to do with your performance. Much older and weaker people run marathons all the time, and most of them finish.
I’m going over because it’s a mob. You aren’t starting in the first wave with pros and nobody in front of you. There are going to be a ton of people in your way. And even with your NYC skills of going around slow people on the sidewalk, and even with big wide open streets, you are going to lose time just because there will be slow people in front of you. There will be many bottlenecks where you just won’t be able to get through without cheating and going off the course.
Ok so I heard Rym mention this on an episode, and I was in a similar situation least year, and I’m a similar age, I’d run a couple of HM’s in around 1h50m, and my first Marathon time was 4h30m. So I’d wager due to traffic 4h10m, simple because as Rym said in his first post, he’s not done much past 18 miles, and I found that its at 18-20 miles that things got a little weird.
EDIT: Oh and best of luck to you Rym! I travelled 400 miles at the weekend to have mine cancelled this year due to Storm Babet
I think we need to take bets on if this even happens next year, or ever again.
On the one hand, it’s not free/easy to get into this thing. Rym only got in because of his job. Will his job even be the same next year? Will his job do it again next year?
Also, Rym went on and on about for years about how marathons are bad for you, and you should run less distance than that. But then, without retracting those statements, he said “ok, just one time.” That said, it wouldn’t be out of character to recant.
What I’m saying is, we have to bet on whether he runs it next year, or ever again.
I think Rym deserves all the congratulations here, as he made it pretty obvious what the winning time prediction would be.
Every timed run or race I’ve ever done, I’ve known in advance what my body is capable of, and what pace I could set. Admittedly this is only up to 10k races, as I’m not interested in putting my body through anything more than that.
I’ve usually finished within about 20-30 seconds of my predicted time, and I always push a bit at the end if I think I might go over slightly.
I assumed Rym had the same kind of running pace judgement, and was being slightly cautious, and would also push a bit harder at the end if he had the energy. So going a single minute under his prediction felt like the safest bet.