Covid-19

Um… WTF?

https://twitter.com/somebadideas/status/1529579888247820288

My coworker contracted covid and I was near enough to them that I now have to be concerned. This is what happens when my manager is trying to have us come into the office once a week to make sure everyone is able to work somewhere else.

I thankfully got a free covid test from the government a few months ago and running it now. Hoping for a negative test. The good news for me is that I was wearing a mask the entire time I was there and not by myself in the office so here is hoping.

I can not emphasize how upset I am about how lax my coworker is, this wasn’t the first time we called them out in not taking this seriously.

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The source of long COVID has (hopefully) been found.

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Seriously, the announced CDC guidance is literally not too far from “GLHF”.

Covid might be here to stay, but the official guidance from the central authority monitoring disease in this country is about the things people don’t need to bother doing anymore and nothing about importance of improved ventilation & filtration in buildings or other steps taken at large scale to account for the ways a significant portion of the populace can’t be fucking bothered to care about their fellow human beings!?

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It’s not so much a GLHF as it is an admission of failure and defeat. Doing the right thing will not serve much purpose unless they can get a lot of people to do it, and they can’t. There’s just no way at this point. They already fucked up, and we’re well into the finding out portion of our program.

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I don’t disagree that they have made so many mistakes along the road to where we are today and thus we are collectively finding out, but official positions like:

“unvaccinated people now have the same guidance as vaccinated people”

and

“…helps us move to a point where COVID-19 no longer severely disrupts our daily lives.”

Are basically saying “y’all are going to do whatever you want, so go roll the dice and at least you get to have that good meal at the restaurant or trip to the winery that you want so badly.” Yes, far fewer people are dying than the past few years, but June still has recorded higher than average & predicted excess deaths.


https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_08032022/WeeklyExcessDeaths?:embed=y&:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

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Here’s the actual new guidance.

I think what is missing here is that they don’t provide their complete reasoning behind this. They are not showing their work, so to speak. As they are the foremost experts on public health, I’m sure they had long meetings, arguments, etc. about these new guidelines. Without knowing their true reasons, and not being an expert, I don’t think I’m in a position to dispute them.

The one question I have, though. Let’s say they put forth the strict guidance that we would prefer. Would it work? Would people follow it? Would enough people follow it to make a difference?

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Yes, that official document has better framing and fuller context. I also have reasonable confidence that from a scientific understanding, the CDC likely has very good research and analysis of what is happening with this virus. But they are horrible at translating their scientific understanding into effective public communication and recommendations that the public & officials need to make policy and behavioral decisions.

I agree that if they had stronger/stricter recommendations it is not going to move the needle on what precautions the incautious are taking. But there is a difference between knowing that people are not going to change their minds and behaviors much at this point and giving those same people ammunition to say “see, the CDC said get on with life and the former precautions are pointless.” Like I said originally, at this point they are not changing individuals minds and public policy makers are also set in their ways, but there are big-picture recommendations they could be making that would largely be invisible to individuals (like improved indoor filtration recommendations and quantifying the benefit of updated vaccines to adapt to more recent variants).

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I just don’t think there’s any right answers. There is no way for them to say, or not say, anything that would not be subject to completely valid criticism. We’re past the point of having a problem to solve. We are now all just suffering consequences. There is no solving of consequences.

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The author of this article said it very well, what I was trying to express in reaction to the CDC’s announced recommendations:

The most recent pivots are not likely to spark a wave of behavioral change: Many people already weren’t quarantining after exposures, or routinely being tested by their schools or workplaces, or keeping six feet apart. But shifting guidance could still portend trouble long-term. One of the CDC’s main impetuses for change appears to have been nudging its guidance closer to what the *public* has felt the status quo should be—a seemingly backward position to adopt. Policies are what normalize behaviors, says Daniel Goldberg, a public-health ethicist at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. If that process begins to operate in reverse—“if you always just permit what people are doing to set your policies, guaranteed, you’re going to preserve the status quo.” Now, as recommendations repeatedly describe rather than influence behavior, the country is locked into a “circular feedback loop we can’t seem to get out of,” Ganapathi told me. The policies weaken; people lose interest in following them, spurring officials to slacken even more. That trend in and of itself is perhaps another form of surrender to individualism, in following the choices of single citizens rather than leading the way to a reality that’s better for us all.

…and with this potential (likely, IMO) resulting risk:

Should the autumn bring with it yet another spike in cases, long COVID, hospitalizations, and deaths, the country will need to be flexible and responsive enough to pivot back to more strictness, which the administration is setting Americans up poorly to do.
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Long Covid is my biggest outstanding concern, both personally and at the population-level. Once that is largely mitigated / treatable / preventable then I can consider resuming some of the most risky activities that I am not yet comfortable with - namely conventions and similar enormous gatherings.

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Get the booster while it’s still free.

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