Covid-19

Science
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Hopefully this does not develop into a SARS or MERS level infection spread.

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With everything else that’s going on in 2020, the last thing we need is some kind of pandemic.

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With everything else that’s going on in 2020, the last thing we need is some kind of pandemic.

FIFTEEN PANDEMICS

Edit: ugh, thanks for editing out the joke forum bot.

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I don’t know anyone who votes for the Coronoavirus party but they keep getting back in!

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Here’s my bad board game joke about the situtation:

Where was this man? He could’ve stopped the spread of the virus.

colonel
colonel2116×2999 1.85 MB

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What I read is that the snake thing was a rumor, and that bats were more likely.

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It’s always fucking bats.

Don’t fuck with Egyptian fruit bats in particular, they’re the natural reservoir for the Marburg virus (think ebola)

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Maybe it’s vampire snakes.
image

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The virus has spread to Europe.

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I am really annoyed at the current Japanese govt handling of the evacuees coming in from Wuhan.
From: Sick Japanese flown out of Wuhan test negative for coronavirus - Nikkei Asia

The other evacuees, who are not showing symptoms, will also receive checkups at a national hospital in Tokyo’s Shinjuku district. They have been asked to quarantine themselves for about two weeks to make sure they are not infected.
Those without symptoms were to be driven home in a government-chartered bus if they live in the Tokyo area. Evacuees residing outside the capital area were to be temporarily housed in government-designated hotel accommodations.

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yes FIFTEEN CHARACTERS

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Overwatch League canceled matches in China.

Also, the potential for the virus to move over to Japan could have Olympic consequences if it’s not defeated.

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Pandemic confirmed.

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The Olympics haven’t been cancelled since World War II.

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I’m told by a friend in Seattle that some people are pushing them to cancel PAX and ECCC, too.

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Fired, along with the rest of the characters. Imagine playing the game with no special powers, and now China just overrun cascaded.

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This came up in discussion on Facebook last night and since I’m pretty sure I’m the only public health microbiologist on these forums, I figured I’d share.

You’re no doubt going to be reading a lot of numbers regarding this outbreak coming up, so here are some terms you’ll probably want to know.

“Mortality rate” is an absolute measure of overall death rate due to a disease; it doesn’t examine specifics, but instead averages out some variables. It’s often used as an index value for odds-making. The value is [number of deaths/total at-risk population].

The “at-risk population” can vary depending on how we define “at-risk,” but generally epidemiologists take a broad view to try to capture as many scenarios as possible. This could include people who are only suspected to be ill, for example.

“Case-fatality rate” is a closer measure of actual mortality. CFR is not one number - it varies depending on the specific population being examined. CFR is used to obtain granular information about specific variables in epidemic disease. The value is [cause-specific deaths in the population/cases in the population]. It’s also a proportion as opposed to a rate.

So, for example, the CFR among persons 80+ years old is roughly 14.8%, but among 30 - 39 year olds, it’s 0.2%. As I said, it’s technically a proportion (i.e. 15 out of 100 persons 80+ who contract the disease have died from it), but some express it as a rate because reasons.

Examining differently, people with no comorbidities (i…e conditions other than the disease) have a CFR of 0.9%, but people with any chronic respiratory disease have a CFR of 6.3%.

Populations are generally defined both temporally and by some shared characteristic. This all factors into a concept called “case definition,” which is an entire nuanced concept unto itself.

Basically, epidemiologists can create different case definitions to examine different specific at-risk populations in order to examine the effect of their specific risk factors. That will become a case-fatality rate, and that rate is specific to that population. It’s a technique to reveal the severity of a disease in specific ways.

The WHO is also using a measure called “Infection-Fatility Ratio,” which (I think) is an attempt to measure both confirmed and unconfirmed cases; case-fatality ratio only examines populations of specific confirmed cases and so accurately measures in the close view but may underestimate in the broad view. I believe that IFR is basically a CFR analysis that uses “everyone who has the disease to date” as its population, so it’s more specific than mortality but also the broadest view of specificity.

There are other measures too, but these are probably the ones you’re most likely to read in scientific publications.

We generally don’t calculate CFR’s and/or IFR until we have a large dataset for various populations, because otherwise you’ll get some wildly varying numbers. Like, if you calculate IFR in the first week of the outbreak, you’ll get a way different value than you would if you wait another week, and looking that closely that quickly can send you off in the wrong direction.

Anyway, there, have some science.

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