I mean the only one that doesn’t look like a pretty decent chance of being reelected is ND.
So, best case scenario, Democrats lose ND. Do they pick up any other Senate seats elsewhere? If not, that means that the need three pick-ups in 2020.
I’d look towards Nevada and AZ for pickups.
In 2018 or 2020? Because if it’s in 2020, that still doesn’t get Democrats a majority in the Senate.
Unless the Senate is fundamentally reorganized, it is the eventual doom of America. It guarantees that the worst of us are the most represented in half of congress forever.
That’s in 2018, 2020, is far away enough not to matter yet, the Republican party is going to be literally off the hook in 2020, especially if the D’s have the house. I’m sure they won’t manage to get a good candidate for some of those races…
But in 2020, all the Republicans in the Senate will be incumbents, unless there are some sudden and unexpected retirements. They’ll already have “good” candidates for those races, so to speak.
That is one of the fundamental problems with American democracy. Outside of a complete reorganization of the Senate and the Legislative Branch, which would require a Constitutional Amendment, I don’t see a way to fix things.
claims of permanent electoral doom tend to be overblown. It’s not going to be easy but D’s tend do better on a senate level than one would expect, I mean how come we have a D in Montana?
Fair point. I guess my reason for posting the article, and the article’s purpose, is to kind of say that trying to retake the Senate in 2020 is going to be super hard.
With Kavanaugh being confirmed to the Supreme Court, I’ve been seeing a lot of people talking about packing the court and adding PR and DC as states like it’s almost a forgone conclusion.
If I had to pick a cause that I’d really focus on it would be getting a new voting rights act at the federal level and have it apply across to every state across the board. (Which was the excuse the Robert SC decided to gut the old one.)
I’m getting really sick of the “hur hur Voter Fraud, time to purge the voter roles of non-white people.”
I could definitely get behind a new voting rights act.
The scary thing though is that even if the Democrats somehow retake the Executive and Legislative branches to pass something like this, or anything really… comprehensive immigration reform, healthcare, whatever, given the NOW current make-up of the Supreme Court, all that could be found unconstitutional. What then?
We stack the court.
But that’s a Catch-22.
We need the Senate to stack the Court, but we need the Court to control the Senate.
True, if the Senate had majority it needed to over turn a Veto, it would also have the majority to impeach the President.
If the act became law, there would be a very lengthly process before the SC heard the case. The Court is still subject to the rule of law, so if they’re going to nix a new VRA they need a reason beyond. “We’re paid tools of insane rich people who don’t think poor and/or non-white people should vote.”
Do they though?
The Supreme Court conservative majority have been blowing up “settled law,” judicial precedent, and stare decisis for a while now. What’s to stop them from just making up some excuse as to why universal healthcare (just to pick one random example) isn’t Constitutional?
No, they could rule however they wanted. There’s no higher authority to which to appeal.
A very timely 5-Part series from Slate about the role of the Supreme Court and how Progressives and Liberals should treat it:
Yeah, they’ve been doing this in plain sight since I have been old enough to vote; probably long before that for all I know.
Do you remember in 2013 when Roberts made up some obtuse thing about “principle of equal sovereignty” in a deciding opinion on discrimination in voters’ rights? It made systematic disenfranchisement more difficult to fight through congress, just as the 2016 election was ramping up. Just one of many important things they’ve been chipping away at forever.
Conservatives know exactly what they’re doing, they’re obsessively motivated, and persistently organized towards that goal. I’m terrified and deeply unnerved about their opposition not even appearing interested in taking any kind of posture against someone actually playing to win.
It’s all a game to them: Do whatever it takes to get into the seats of power, then tell everyone to fuck right off and do whatever best suits you. Lie, cheat, disenfranchise voters, gerrymander, threaten people, spread fear, be repugnant. As long as you win, then once you’re in do whatever.