GeekNights Tuesday - Handicapping Games

Starfox · February 19, 2019, 11:18pm

Wow he reffed the Malice at the Palace!

Apreche · February 20, 2019, 12:26am

Wow, tough to think of a bigger black mark on a resume than that.

Starfox · February 28, 2019, 5:08am

Does anyone play non-chess board games with a chess clock?

Plus, it has the bonus of making people take their turn faster geez, would you go already?

Naoza · February 28, 2019, 5:09am

Jenga

zehaeva · February 28, 2019, 2:23pm

Does Go count?
15 characters of short board game names

Starfox · February 28, 2019, 3:30pm

Sure. Is that not standard practice with go? I kind of meant things more along the lines of Carcassonne or Hanabi. Now that would be an intense fireworks display.

zehaeva · February 28, 2019, 8:32pm

It’s standard practice in competitive games of Go, or playing with friends who can’t make up their damned minds! Like the people I teach the game to, their beginners, 15 to 20 kyu, you don’t need 5 minutes a move!

Starfox · January 8, 2021, 4:12am

If you were a bookmaker and magically knew the final score of every game ahead of time, what do you set the spread at?

Not be a bookie and clean everyone else out?

Apreche · January 8, 2021, 4:28am

Let’s say it’s NY vs. Philly. People are smart and 5 people bet on NY and 1 person bets on Philly. As the bookmaker you set the odds pretty close to 5:1. If Philly wins, you can divide the NY money among the Philly bettors, and vice versa if NY wins. And of course you take a cut.

If you know in advance that NY is going to win you want people to bet Philly. I guess you artificially raise the odds for Philly to win to like 10:1 to encourage people to bet and lose. But I guess if you go too far people will be suspicious and gambling regulators might take notice.

Starfox · January 8, 2021, 6:28am

No, the spread. Everyone thinks NY is going to win by 14, but you know they’re going to win by 1.

If you set the line at NY -1, it’s a push and you don’t make any money.

I think if it’s just one game, you move the line toward the favorite half a point. NY -1.5 in our case. Everyone bets NY to cover, they fail by half a point. The house wins big.

Now, what if you’re handicapping a whole season? People would catch on if you nail the exact spread 16/16 games after… 1 week?

So do you try and disguise your knowledge? How far from the consensus do you stray for upsets?

Once people catch on, you could randomly pick +.5 or -.5 for every game. People bet evenly both sides and the vig takes care of things for you.

Apreche · January 8, 2021, 1:26pm

I think you’re better off placing bets than taking them in this scenario.