Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy and other American Football issues


How about this for an esport? If they convert basically any sport to Sport, But With Robots I’d watch it.


One minor point I’d like to make is that, at least right now, cable cutting is not that big. In a few years? Maybe, or if, for example, you can watch your local baseball team via MLB Network live. What’s killing ESPN right now is the amount of money they get per subscriber is such that some cable providers are moving them from the base tier into sports packages that cost more, and thus customers are more reluctant to get ESPN unless they have something the customer really wants.
For example, I am primarily interested in auto racing, basketball, and baseball when it comes to sports. Indycar is going to NBC and NBCSN exclusively next year, F1 is already only on NBC and NBCSN. IMSA and WEC are on Fox Sports networks. Baseball is everywhere, and in New England we have NESN for the Red Sox specifically. Basketball is also everywhere. I don’t need ESPN, so if I had to make such a call, I wouldn’t pay extra for ESPN.


The primary source of revenue for NFL, MLB, etc. are TV deals. These are enormous long-term contracts where the TV networks pay the leagues for the rights to broadcast their games. The networks are contractually obligated to pay the set (enormous) amount for the duration of the contract regardless of ratings or performance. The reason they made the deals is because it is obviously profitable. The ads they sell make make up for it.

Except those deals were too long term, and the world changed. Again, they are contractually obligated to pay the league. That’s why ESPN had to lay off their staff instead. They couldn’t just pay the NFL less money instead.

The money that the leagues make from ticket sales, advertising (the ads in stadiums and such, not on TV), merchandise, etc. pales in comparison to the TV money. For example…

Each TV network that airs the NFL is paying about a billion per year. That’s a billion from ESPN, a billion from NBC, CBS, FOX. That’s about four billion US dollars per year.

When the TV contracts for the major sports are up for renewal, that is when you will see the pressure transfer from the networks to the leagues themselves. If the prices go down, that’s when you know they are over the hill.


That’s a real overestimation of esports imo. I follow the LoL scene pretty religiously and League isn’t close to breaking into Big 4 real sports (Football/Basketball/Baseball/Hockey) and probably won’t for the next 10 or 20 years. At least in America that is. In China, with Tencent looking to pour billions into Esports, they maybe able to become truly mainstream:

LoL’s NA and EU weekly regular season games only get around 150 to 250k viewers concurrently. That figure jumps to about 400 to 600k in its regional finals. The majority of that cited 32 million viewers is in China. Meanwhile, the auxiliary components of Esports like writers, interviewers, and reporters are slowly dying as companies realize Esports isn’t big enough yet to cut their piece of the pie. Overwatch as well is vastly overestimating their ability to create an audience and I see this backfiring and hurting potential investors in Esports.

The top American sports in 2027 will likely be the same with Basketball slightly rising:

  1. Football
  2. Basketball
  3. Baseball
  4. Hockey
  5. Soccer
  6. MMA/Boxing
  7. Some Esport
  8. Tennis


Smartest football player retires.


“Big” regular sports require a lot more money to be spent on the production of the product.

eSports cost so little to run that there’ much more actual profit to be had.

They can consume sports the same way “reality TV” consumed traditional television.


Fun fact with Urschel. Honestly his leaving the NFL over not wanting his head further damaged is only part of how awesome and smart he is. He’s got a backup plan. (It mentions it in the article above)

While he was doing the whole getting into the NFL thing, he was, ya know, casually, on the side, getting “bachelor’s and master’s degrees in mathematics from Penn State” and after leaving the NFL will be falling back on his ‘backup?’ plan of “pursuing a Ph.D. in mathematics from MIT”

While having two separate careers, I guess somewhere down the line he decided he had too much downtime and also added a third to his resume as “an Advanced Stats Columnist for The Players’ Tribune.” I guess he also fancied journalism.

So yeah, I guess he just sleeps on Sundays or something.


[quote=“Naoza, post:87, topic:341”]
While having two separate careers, I guess somewhere down the line he decided he had too much downtime and also added a third to his resume as “an Advanced Stats Columnist for The Players’ Tribune.” I guess he also fancied journalism.
[/quote]Masters in math, and going after a PHD in math, AND an advanced stats columnist, with NFL experience? Tenner says Nate Silver is absolutely champing at the bit to get him on board at 538.


Heh, I’d be a fool to take that action. Just wish I’d thought of it.




I like the phrase “pointsball boygames.”



As I’ve said elsewhere, there is a reckoning coming for ALL contact sports and pro wrestling and everything related(maybe not the Globetrotters, but that’s about all I can think of that might escape) where we are going to have to ask ourselves “Is it worth it?” Yes, you can make millions of dollars potentially, but is any amount of money worth risking your brain? A lot of people are going to say no. The NFL is extra boned because they actively tried to block research about the effects of football. I personally would suggest you stop supporting them early and be ahead of the curve, but to each their own.


I think the head injury risk from regular old basketball is pretty low.


Unless you’re a fan on the foul line I guess.




Boxing and football probably won’t survive, but I have a feeling pro wrestling will be okay if they manage their talent okay.

I see pro wrestling much more as an opt-in-by-adults kind of activity, sort of like ski-ing or parkour or other action/extreme sports. There is danger, but those going in know the danger, and they chose to do it of their own free will, not because it’s the only way to get educated, or a route out of poverty.

It also has the benefit that winning or losing isn’t strictly correlated to physical effort in relation to the opponent. In football the players punish their opponents, and put themselves through the same punishment, as that’s the only way to get an advantage and win. With pro wrestling, the outcome is decided in advance and the physical exertion is in cooperation with the opponent. Being more violent isn’t in the interests of anyone involved.

Of course, like base jumping and wingsuit flying, there is competition among participants to be ever more extreme in their stunts for their videos and other sponsorship related events. But pro wrestling isn’t an independent or solo activity, so there are avenues for regulation or control that aren’t there for jumping off low buildings or flying close to rock formations.

Still looks pretty brutal at times though.


There absolutely is a form of professional wrestling that CAN largely protect the head, and the occasional concussion will occur but that’s just the risk of athletics. Baseball would be safe but for the occasional wild pitch that ends up hitting someone in the head, as they can pad the walls and very few players get hurt falling into dugouts or such because the players down there will probably catch them. Basketball always has the risk of a player falling wrong on a layup or such where they smash their head on the wooden floor. Soccer has similar risks, but a grass pitch instead of wood will inherently have more give and FIFA can bad headers outright if they want to.
I have a hard time vizualizing a really safe form of hockey. They can ban fighting and they can pad the barricades, but the puck is going to get hard from being on the ice, and it’s going to hurt you if it hits you in the head. Football needs drastic rule changes to become safe, or it will die. Boxing will go away, kickboxing will likely go away, and I think MMA might evolve into more grappling, perhaps something like the old catch wrestling Billy Robinson was trained in where there were pinfalls and submissions.


The thing about pro wrestling is that it’s also more or less a stunt show. Yes, some of the stunts look pretty brutal, and yes, the nature of them does beat up on the body a fair bit, and yes, injuries may happen as a result, but part of the skill of a good wrestler is to make the stunts look more brutal than they actually are.

As far as MMA, it’s not as brutal as boxing in many ways due to its rules. Your typical MMA fight is 3 five minute rounds, or 15 minutes total. A main event or championship fight is 5 five minute rounds, for 25 minutes total. A high level boxing match is 12 3 minute rounds or 36 minutes, total. Also, MMA doesn’t have things like standing 8 counts, 10 counts on knock downs, etc. The MMA ref is very, very quick to stop a fight compared to a boxing ref. Basically, as soon as you look defenseless, the fight is over. Finally, as Hitman mentioned, all the grappling in MMA does allow you to win a fight without having to pummel the crap out of your opponent.

I’m not sure how it will evolve, but I don’t think it’s as brutal as some of the other combat sports it tends to go up against.