So regarding this most recent abortion ban-thing hitting my state and Alabama at the least:
Is it the dog catching the bus?
A couple steps here. I always felt like the abortion thing was the bus, you don’t actually want to catch it, but you want to bark at it, chase it, put on a good show (as a republican). It’s not about catching the bus, catching the bus has consequences. The bus is bigger and doesn’t give a fuck that you “caught” it. You always want to bark at the bus, you always want to pretend to be angry, but don’t catch the bus: that’s where you get hurt.
(1) Is the analogy wrong? Are they better served by catching the bus? Will republicans actually be better served in elections to actually pull off this supreme court decision before the election? It seems intuitively galvanizing to me, and as the bones roll, if everyone is incensed to vote actually vote they lose.
(2) Is there sufficient external reason to catch the bus? Is this either a distraction sufficient to let something else fly under the radar that is somehow more important or is this necessary to galvanize the base for this specific election for some reason? You’re basically spending your one time to catch the bus here, if you actually enforce it. It has to serve the overall metagoals of the GOP right? Because most of the politicians actually don’t give a shit, this is just a tool in their repertoire to create their coalition, and they’re relatively expending it?
(3) Does it even go very far? I re-read both opinions on Roe v Wade today, and I’m sure others know better, but it does seem like they intentionally kicked the can down the road. It was ALWAYS about having another fight later. The republicans are choosing some specific assumptions to hold up around today, but it could have been years ago or years from now, you’re just picking a line in the sand and trying to force the court to decide a definition. But to me, from a casual understanding, even if they get what they want the ruling here would equally decide someone could legally declare the opposite of what they want in a different state. If we require laws to be based on the constitution and we decide this is enforceable under the “police article” essentially, we are also opening the door to every other policy in this regard (forced vasectomies, eugenics, etc) relatively similarly. Not an attorney, just how I follow all of that. And I mean, yeah, sure, that’s possible. But that seems like the dog catching the bus.