Ukraine

Politics
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Yeah that’s mostly it. We all, I think, expected that Russia would roll in fast with a US-style ‘shock and awe’ approach, and settle the matter within 2-3 days. That we’re seeing a fairly conventional ‘slug it out’ conflict is so out of what anyone was anticipating, that I think that is the real ‘shock and awe’ of it. Not that we now expect a totally different outcome, but now the possibility has re-entered the chat.

Well, yes, but a few things I still worry about: Russia has tons of stuff that it hasn’t thrown into this conflict yet and so there’s the what-if factor. That’s not a huge one, but there’s certainly capabilities being left on the table so far. Also, in this invasion they are trying to go in fairly ‘clean’ for what it is, and so it’s not what we’d call an unrestricted, total-war, type conflict, at least not for the Russians. In a full-on conflict with NATO they may not be limited by such things and could employ different tactics and strategies, the ones they’ve been refining since the end of WWII. (Again, whether those would actually make a difference, hard to say.)

A main point as well, setting off the trigger that causes NATO to start getting serious also has the effect of this news galvanizing the Russian people, who will hear how Putin was right all along to not trust the west. And with growing civilian support, so goes the approval for more military spending there, more folks joining the military and being serious about it. And with such news, NATO will feel justified in having made the decision to start re-arming, and thus increase that pace; so the arms race starts to pick up steam amidst circular recursive self-fulfilling prophecies.

After a few years of that, both sides true capabilities in a hypothetical conflict will be very hard to judge again.

If this is his main play of shooting his shot, I could buy that, but then I’m surprised we don’t see more of the ‘toys’ coming out. The T-14 Armata tank a prime example. Sure they only have maybe 100 of them and probably only a few dozen that could take the field, but even as just a symbol, if this was my one shot I’d want to make sure the best stuff was on display.

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103

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

That’s a pretty compelling angle, I have to admit.

I do not like it, sir.

104

Not directly related to Ukraine, but still related:

“Today, Ukraine, tomorrow, Taiwan”

“The self-governed island democracy has long faced the threat of being absorbed by the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, which has vowed to do so by force if it deems necessary. As Taiwanese watch Russian troops pour into Ukraine, their unease about their island’s own future is growing. The courage of Ukrainians, as well as the harsh reality of that country’s lonely battle, has driven a greater sense of urgency among many Taiwanese to step up the island’s defenses.”

" Taiwan’s parallels with Ukraine are evident to many on this island of 23 million people. Taiwan, like Ukraine, has long lived in the shadow of a large and overbearing neighbor. Both China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia have appealed to nationalistic historical narratives to justify their present-day territorial claims. And Mr. Xi has in recent years intensified his warnings to Taiwan not to seek formal independence from China, similar to the ways in which Mr. Putin had threatened to punish Ukraine if it sought to strengthen security ties with the West, for instance by joining NATO.

In Taiwan, the invasion has rekindled debates about the probability of a Chinese invasion, the level of Taiwan’s military preparedness and whether the United States is committed to defending the island. Taiwan is more vulnerable than Ukraine, to some extent, because it is not recognized by most countries as a sovereign nation."

Given Chinese role in the global economy, it would be nearly impossible to isolate it and cut it off with sanctions the way things are happening with Russia now.

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105

If you think it’s a bad time to have RWNJ parents…

Imagine if you’re being shelled, could die at any moment, and your parents don’t believe you.

I think we need more of this, not just now, but forever. We need to find a way to use satellite dishes and other wireless equipment to get around the great firewalls of the world and achieve the true global information network the Internet promised.

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107

Wow, that was fast.

108

It looks like he grew up in France and his nationality change was already in the works. This just sped things up unnaturally fast.

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Ok, cool. But change your map of China and I’ll really be impressed.

110

I just ran into a distant relative who literally said that Russia bombing nuclear power plants was “fake news.”

Some people just won’t accept what’s in front of them.

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111

A month ago, how much would you have bet on the Ukraine Air Force being able to stand up to Russia’s? It’s day 9 and they still are contesting airspace.

I’ve had to update my opinion of how much trouble the Russian Air Force could give the USAF.

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112

a month ago I would have assumed Russia would have eliminated most of their airforce within a day or two. with a majority of their airdefenses compromised.

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I’ve seen a fair number of opinions expressed by ex-military types or military experts who study Russian capabilities and what we are seeing currently proposing lots of plausible explanations ranging from Russia not wanting to risk the cost/depletion of some of their more advanced technology to poor training & co-ordination of their forces as to why they haven’t overwhelmed Ukraine yet. And other experts warning that just because Ukraine has withstood the onslaught does not mean they can hold on toe-to-toe for the long haul. That Russia could engage and seems to be bringing additional forces and the tide could turn very quickly and as bad as things are today for Ukraine they could quickly get much worse.

I don’t know what is the correct analysis, likely we will have a better understanding in the future probably when things have settled down.

I’m seeing an increasingly strident and exasperated call from Americans to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine to prevent some of the worst atrocities that Russia has been and could be inflicting on the citizens in Ukraine. Morally, it would absolutely be the right thing to do. However there are other considerations and this recent video from a former F-14 pilot who participated in no-fly zones over Iraq and Bosnia does a good job of laying out the reality of what is involved and therefore the implications of such a move.

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EDIT:

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Because of course they are:

“Since the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve seen how conspiracy theories can overlap and collide. I’ve documented how anti-vaccine groups embraced QAnon disinformation about liberal elites conspiring to unseat Trump, and how white nationalists find willing audiences for their racist ideology in anti-mask groups. Over the past week, a new disinformation hybrid has appeared, as online anti-vaccine groups have become a hotbed of pro-Russia conspiracy theories about the conflict in Ukraine—and some of the most prominent anti-vaccine activists are actively promoting geopolitical falsehoods.”

"Imran Ahmed, CEO of the online extremism tracking group Center for Countering Digital Hate, has been following the convergence of conspiracy theories and noticed that they share familiar themes: alleged secret government alliances, antisemitic accusations, and allusions to nefarious scientists. “There are particular individuals within the anti-vaccine world who are amenable to pro-Russian propaganda,” he says, “and that would include some of the people who’ve cohered around QAnon and Trump.”

117
CW: brutal murder

Ukraine war: 'Russian soldiers killed my family while they fled' - BBC News

I honestly don’t see any peaceful outcomes with Putin’s removal.

We know his brutal history, but it’s just so public now. In what scenario does Putin leave Ukraine alone and not answer for these crimes?

It’s even more difficult to imagine, especially with the USA and the UK’s history with war and war crimes. There are so many long standing injustices that it’s difficult to separate the ongoing and immediate threat that Russia poses under Putin, while simultaneously still living with the aftermath of all those previous wars.

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What a story this is! We could talk about this for daaaaays.

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Wow! This seems… not good. Actually just very bad on the part of FB. One would think that having a strict policy against calls for violence in any form would be an easy ethical decision. I guess not for FB.

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I’m not super opposed to threatening soldiers literally and actively engaged in warfare against you with death. You (in this scenario) definitely have a right to defend yourself, up to and including killing said soldiers in combat.

There’s definitely a lot to discuss. It would also be good to see a second source other than Reuters.

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