Manafort apparently has already surrendered.
Meanwhile Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos has pleaded guilty to charges of lying to the FBI. This happened on October 5th but only revealed today.
I’ve heard some speculation from within the infosec community / where infosec meets government affairs communities that the fact that he pleaded guilty to only lying to the FBI might mean that he’s been flipped in exchange for not being charged with some other stuff.
It’s pure speculation and we’ll just have to see how this shakes out. but it’s something. 538’s coverage has been good.
I’m not sure what he lied about yet.
Here’s a great explanation about the current situation and what is likely coming up:
Edit: Easier to read version
Things are looking…Good, hesitantly.
The stuff with Papadopolous is pretty clearly collusion with the Russian government, and may be actual tangible proof of Trump’s attempts to have Russia hack the Democrats in exchange for favorable Pro-Russian policy.
Ehhhh this is a better analysis. I’m not a huge fan of Seth Abramson
Jesus, Susan Hennessey is exceedingly well credentialed. I mean, I kinda expect people doing analysis on this kinda stuff to be but, like fuck. Ex NSA lawyer, currently general council of Lawfare, Brookings fellow at NSL… Harvard and UCLA grad? Jesus fuck, she’s qualified to talk about this.
How does she not have a wikipedia page?
Manafort’s bail has been set to 10 million. Will also be interesting should he manage to make it to prove that the money isn’t ill-gotten.
Also, courts have struck down Trumps “no transgender military members” decree. Good.
This was the kind of summary I was after:
Now, I’m curious how all of this will play out in the end. Would Trump be impeached, and Mike Pence would just take over from there immediately? Will all of his appointees be allowed to remain in their positions?
I know very little about the American Impeachment system, as you can probably tell.
No one really knows, but ordinarily that would probably be the case. Pence taking over would at least be predicated on the idea that his hands are clean on this issue, which I doubt is the case. We’re all going to see just how deep the rabbit hole is on this.
I have a nagging feeling that Trump will escape any real charges so that the Republican party and the American political system as a whole can save face.
By nagging feeling, do you me a look at our history with Nixon?
Leonard French is covering the indictments.
I don’t really give a fuck what happens to Trump after all this, I just don’t want him in power. He’s destabilizing the whole world.
Even if Mueller’s investigation were to show that Pence was involved, and/or the entire election should be invalidated because of Russian meddling, there are no mechanisms that would “undo” the 2016 presidential election.
Regardless of what the investigation reveals, we’re stuck with this administration. Pence might be president, or if he goes down, Paul Ryan would be second in line.
I’m am 100% OK with a Ryan presidency.
I wasn’t specifically addressing you, I was just making a general comment. Not here, but I’ve seen people posting in other places with completely unrealistic expectations that the Mueller investigation is somehow going to roll back the entire Trump Administration, including nominees. That’s never going to happen.