Hong Kong

4x terms china is trying to culture flip HK because they literally surround it with their influence.

Read a book or talk to an old person much?

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Hence, the US is literally the only military power on Earth that could credibly defend Hong Kong from Chinese military aggression. Literally the only one, by a wiiiiiiiide margin.

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In the 80s and 90s China was on a (relatively) liberal swing after Mao’s death which I think made the UK feel more comfortable with a handover. IIRC the real erosion of Hong Kong’s pseudo-sovereignty started in the end of Hu’s administration with a conservative authoritarian backlash in step with the political tides of the rest of the world that resulted in Xi’s ascension to power. If there’s anything a reactionary administration is not going to stand for it’s a thriving liberal democracy in their front lawn. Its an embarrassment of sorts, it shows up everything they do wrong. So they start grinding it out.

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I’m not in favor of a major war with China, but if there were to be a serious trade of blows in HK, and someone could fuck up some PLA hardware I wouldn’t, like, cry about it. We all would be very curious to see F-22 vs J20 first hand.

Thing is tho, from what little I know, if things were to even potentially get there China would likely pull their ball and go home right? Because they would rather not put themselves in a position to have their military even remotely challenged. Even if they get HK out of it, it’s a minor gain when they already have powerful cities there, and longer term they’d have everything to loose. Plus it undermines the whole plan so far from what I can tell so, I feel like the protesters can pretty-much call China’s bluff here for a while.

My understanding is that doing something like that would embolden China’s pro-democracy forces, which is something that China wants to avoid at any and all costs.

Britain only ceded Hong Kong to China due to a direct threat of a Chinese military invasion of the island.

They did so against the wishes of the far majority of the population.

Hong Kong is (was) ((and should remain)) as independent as Taiwan.

The issue with HK independence vs Taiwan is that China can drive/march troops, armor, etc. HK is for all intents and purposes within the control of China short of a major war. Taiwan on the other hand has enough distance that the massive amount of armor, planes, artillery the US has sold Taiwan can actually be brought to bear on the naval landing force when it attempts to establish a beachhead under fire and allowing the US time and space to get pacific fleets involved.

China is massing troops on the border.

This is going to end and end badly

This is sadly what I thought would happen. Violent suppression, martial law, end of any semblence of democracy in HK. It will be Tianenmen Square 2.

You don’t waste time and money moving all those trucks for no reason.

Its the People’s Armed police which is essentially a second land army dedicated to quashing internal dissent.

The one truck without a cover looks like its full of police barricades. The rest are undoubtedly full of soldiers and weapons.

I think those trucks are mostly full of equipment, other than the drivers. The troops are probably in these APCs. What little good it does to know the main guns have been removed.

They’re WZ551 Type 92B models it looks like, only carries a nine man squad each. Article says a dozen armored vehicles but with that many trucks I’m guessing they’re going to need more manpower than what would be transported in a dozen APCs to handle all the equipment they’re lugging.

I would be extremely wary about any reports of mass mobilization. There have been mistaken reports conflating regular movements with pre-deployment to HK

I’m sure there are a lot more that are not on photos on the Internet. This is just what it seen and posted.

I was very wary, but these photos/videos, assuming they aren’t fake or old and being posted as new, seem to suggest otherwise. A truck of police barricades in the place nearest HK on the day the airport got shut down. I sure hope it is for other reasons.